(Pre-print) Age-Stratified SARS-CoV-2 Infection Fatality Rates in New York City estimated from serological data

Abstract: COVID-19 has killed hundreds of thousands of people in the US and >1 million globally. Estimating the age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 for different populations is crucial for assessing the fatality of COVID-19 and for appropriately allocating limited vaccine supplies to minimize mortality. We used data from a published serosurvey of 5946 individuals 18 years or older conducted April 19-28, 2020 with time series of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths for five age-classes from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. We inferred age-specific IFRs using a Bayesian framework that accounted for the distribution of delay between infection and seroconversion and infection and death. New York City IFRs were higher for 18-44 year olds and 45-64 year olds (0.58%; 0.45%-0.75%) than Spanish, English, and Swiss populations, but IFRs for 75+ year olds were lower than for English populations and similar to Spanish and Swiss populations. These results suggest that the age-specific fatality of COVID-19 differs among developed countries and raises questions about factors underlying these differences.

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Recommended citation: Rickards, C. G., & Kilpatrick, A. M. (2020). Age-Stratified SARS-CoV-2 Infection Fatality Rates in New York City estimated from serological data (p. 2020.10.16.20214023). medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.16.20214023